Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern…

2011: -93%

2015: -86%

2018: -84%

2022: -77%

Every cycle, the drawdown gets smaller as the market matures.

If BTC follows this trend, the 2026 bottom should be around -70% from the $126K ATH. That puts us at $38K.

At the moment It costs $87,000 to produce one Bitcoin and the current price is $65,000. So, miners are losing money on every single coin they mine. This only happens during bear markets.

In 2022, Bitcoin dropped below its production cost in June. People called the bottom but the actual bottom was 5 months later in November at $15,800 after miners were forced to sell everything they had just to keep the lights on.

The pattern has always been the same. Price drops below production cost. Miners start selling reserves to survive. Selling pressure pushes price lower. Weaker miners go bankrupt. Their creditors liquidate the remaining Bitcoin. More selling. More pain. Then the bottom.

We are in the selling reserves phase. The bankruptcy phase has not even started.

Of course, things could be different this time.

In my opinion BTC is going LOWER

Ill be DCAing sub 50k